Predict.

Predicting the future of oxygen minimum zones

This task will develop a new generation of ecosystem models to predict how oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) will respond to climate change and how they will influence future ocean nitrogen cycling.

Unlike traditional models, this approach is based on fundamental microbial processes rather than fixed oxygen thresholds or site-specific assumptions. By combining experimental data with high-resolution ocean circulation models, researchers will simulate how oxygen supply, microbial activity, and nitrogen loss interact in dynamic ocean environments.

Building a universal OMZ ecosystem model

We will develop a mechanistic ecosystem model that describes microbial nitrogen cycling across different OMZs around the world.

The model will link microbial metabolism, growth, nutrient uptake, and mortality directly to physical and chemical principles. Experimental measurements from Tasks 1 and 2 — including growth rates, substrate use, and mortality — will be used to constrain and test the model.

The model will be developed across increasing levels of complexity, from simple simulations to fully three-dimensional regional ocean models that capture oxygen intrusions and circulation patterns.

Expanding to the global ocean

The microbial ecosystem model will be integrated into a state-of-the-art global ocean and climate model developed through the Climate Modeling Alliance (CliMA).

For the first time, a mechanistic microbial ecosystem model will be combined with high-resolution global ocean circulation, allowing researchers to simulate OMZ dynamics and nitrogen loss across the entire ocean.

Predicting future OMZs and nitrogen loss

The final model will be used to predict how OMZs may expand or change under future climate conditions.

By explicitly including both aerobic and anaerobic microbial communities, the model will capture how microbial processes influence nitrogen loss and climate feedbacks in the future ocean.

Examples of Ecosystem Models

Nitrite concentration at 26.5 kg m-3 isopycnal

Reference: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GB007670

Oxygen concentration at 26.5 kg m-3 isopycnal

Reference: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GB007670

Predicted Nitrite Oxidation Rate of Eastern Tropical South Pacific

Reference: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ado0742